Without a doubt the best opportunities present themselves during times of financial distress. During a bear market asset prices take to the downside as risk gets repriced and fear takes over. I would argue that the exact catalyst is not as particularly important as the archetype psychological response which it induces. Markets change, but the … Continue reading Putting on Risk in a Bear Market
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Gold Declining Wedge
Watching $1312 to see if Gold is going to break through the declining wedge pattern below. Interestingly the DXY still looks as if its going to continue selling off through to $96. Buy into strength. Sell into weakness.
Don’t look now but Bitcoin is …rallying?
No doubt that cryptocurrencies throughout 2017 were a massive bubble of euphoria and unrealistic promises of unlimited application and disruption. In December of 2017 Bitcoin peaked just shy of $20,000 USD and throughout 2018 saw a decline of ~80%. Bitcoin fared well in comparison to most of its peers, with Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and … Continue reading Don’t look now but Bitcoin is …rallying?
Short term play on GOLD
As the Dollar Currency Index approaches upper resistance in the $97.50 region, Gold looks attractive for a quick play. Everyone and their dog knows that Gold and the US Dollar (DXY) typically trade inversely, Dollar up > Gold down. Although this correlation has been breaking down in recent months; no doubt a weak Dollar provides … Continue reading Short term play on GOLD
Dollar Euro Gold
The Dollar breaks out against Euro as ECB flips On Thursday the ECB flipped. After Powell lead the way in January it was about time for Mario to follow suit. After announcing a few dovish policy decisions and most notably that rates would remain unchanged until the end of 2019, the Euro sank to levels … Continue reading Dollar Euro Gold
The Week Ahead
On Friday the S&P500 closed within ~10 points of the previous week, marking little action as the index pressed up against the 2,800 resistance. Treasuries sold off slightly with the 10 Y hitting 2.759%. Treasury spread on the 5-30 hit its highest in more than a year at 58 basis points. Gold ended a bullish … Continue reading The Week Ahead
Sell the News?
After the "worst December since the Great Depression" equities have recovered from their extremely oversold levels. The S&P500 posted a ~ 8% gain during the month of January. Since December 24 SPX has rallied almost 20% from 2350 back to 2800, with only 11 of the last 40 sessions closing lower than they opened. 2800-2817 … Continue reading Sell the News?
SPX top, Treasuries and Dollar Rally subdue GOLD
SPX Topping; a new lower high This week has been less exciting for equities as the major indices have failed to rally above last Fridays highs. As we look at the S&P 500 its easy to see that overhead resistance is becoming a large contributor to the days price action. Lets remember that in high … Continue reading SPX top, Treasuries and Dollar Rally subdue GOLD
$EEM has under-performed $SPX
The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has surprisingly under-performed the S&P 500 in this recent risk rally. Take a look at $SPX: nearly 14% since Dec 24th! Meanwhile $EEM has returned ~9% during the same time period Probably telling about the true nature of this surge in risk assets. Participants are highly emotional and uncertain during … Continue reading $EEM has under-performed $SPX
The Ultimate Short Setup?
Christmas eve posted a -2.06% day on the S&P500, when markets opened again on the 26th we closed up 4.43% (more than 100 S&P points). The DOW posted up 4.67% (+1,020 DOW points). Is this how we bottom? I don't think so. Since the Dec 26th intraday bottom of 2346 on the S&P, we … Continue reading The Ultimate Short Setup?
