Last December I read The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros. Published in 1987 I'm no doubt late to this one... to my credit, in 1987 I was -10 years old. I have come to find his theories on Reflexivity to be eye opening and a well needed addition to the proverbial tool belt of … Continue reading Reflexivity
The Dollar breaks out against Euro as ECB flips On Thursday the ECB flipped. After Powell lead the way in January it was about time for Mario to follow suit. After announcing a few dovish policy decisions and most notably that rates would remain unchanged until the end of 2019, the Euro sank to levels … Continue reading Dollar Euro Gold
After 19%+ in two months, oversold conditions have run overbought. So far to be short in 2019 has been a less than fruitful venture, to say the least. Since Christmas day the S&P500 took off and never looked back. Breaking through 2,500 2,600 2,700, and while closing above 2,800 a couple times in the past … Continue reading The Short Side
After the "worst December since the Great Depression" equities have recovered from their extremely oversold levels. The S&P500 posted a ~ 8% gain during the month of January. Since December 24 SPX has rallied almost 20% from 2350 back to 2800, with only 11 of the last 40 sessions closing lower than they opened. 2800-2817 … Continue reading Sell the News?
SPX Topping; a new lower high This week has been less exciting for equities as the major indices have failed to rally above last Fridays highs. As we look at the S&P 500 its easy to see that overhead resistance is becoming a large contributor to the days price action. Lets remember that in high … Continue reading SPX top, Treasuries and Dollar Rally subdue GOLD
Dollar Bounce: $95 technical support Lets recall the 4 major components of the Dollar Currency Index $DXY, by weight: Euro (EUR) - 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) - 13.6% Pound Sterling (GBP) - 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) - 9.1% Now we can see that the DXY bounce is primarily as result of Euro depreciation, relative to … Continue reading GOLD vs Dollar
Christmas eve posted a -2.06% day on the S&P500, when markets opened again on the 26th we closed up 4.43% (more than 100 S&P points). The DOW posted up 4.67% (+1,020 DOW points). Is this how we bottom? I don't think so. Since the Dec 26th intraday bottom of 2346 on the S&P, we … Continue reading The Ultimate Short Setup?
$TWTR bounced again off $26-27 reaffirming support. Looking at resistance in $34-36 range.
Last week we started off 2019 with a slide in equities, the S&P500 testing and selling off the 2520 resistance level. My thoughts at the time being that this was a significant resistance and we would not breakout from it proved wrong as the market ripped through on Friday. Fueled by the hope that Powell … Continue reading Starting 2019
Equities will be volatile and the bear market is upon us: If indeed Sept was the top of this bull market and we are headed into a well needed reversion to the mean; expect 2019 to be a volatile and dangerous year for equities and risk assets across the board. Structural flaws will become apparent … Continue reading Some thoughts on 2019