Dollar After breaking out through the Nov-April resistance of 97.70, the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) ticked to ~98.40 on two occasions and is currently selling down for a possible retest of prevailing support. Often we see resistance turned into support after a technical breakout, watching 97.50-97.70 to confirm the up-trend. As for the components of … Continue reading Market update: Dollar, Gold, 10Y, SPX and BTC
Last December I read The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros. Published in 1987 I'm no doubt late to this one... to my credit, in 1987 I was -10 years old. I have come to find his theories on Reflexivity to be eye opening and a well needed addition to the proverbial tool belt of … Continue reading Reflexivity
The Dollar breaks out against Euro as ECB flips On Thursday the ECB flipped. After Powell lead the way in January it was about time for Mario to follow suit. After announcing a few dovish policy decisions and most notably that rates would remain unchanged until the end of 2019, the Euro sank to levels … Continue reading Dollar Euro Gold
After 19%+ in two months, oversold conditions have run overbought. So far to be short in 2019 has been a less than fruitful venture, to say the least. Since Christmas day the S&P500 took off and never looked back. Breaking through 2,500 2,600 2,700, and while closing above 2,800 a couple times in the past … Continue reading The Short Side
On Friday the S&P500 closed within ~10 points of the previous week, marking little action as the index pressed up against the 2,800 resistance. Treasuries sold off slightly with the 10 Y hitting 2.759%. Treasury spread on the 5-30 hit its highest in more than a year at 58 basis points. Gold ended a bullish … Continue reading The Week Ahead
After the "worst December since the Great Depression" equities have recovered from their extremely oversold levels. The S&P500 posted a ~ 8% gain during the month of January. Since December 24 SPX has rallied almost 20% from 2350 back to 2800, with only 11 of the last 40 sessions closing lower than they opened. 2800-2817 … Continue reading Sell the News?
The January 30th FOMC press conference was greatly anticipated by market participants, generally looking to see how dovish Powell could get in the light of uncertain financial conditions and signs of a global slowdown. This is a recap of last meeting: Language: Powell starts off his conference indicating that the "economy is in a good … Continue reading The Powell Put in Action
Christmas eve posted a -2.06% day on the S&P500, when markets opened again on the 26th we closed up 4.43% (more than 100 S&P points). The DOW posted up 4.67% (+1,020 DOW points). Is this how we bottom? I don't think so. Since the Dec 26th intraday bottom of 2346 on the S&P, we … Continue reading The Ultimate Short Setup?
Last week we started off 2019 with a slide in equities, the S&P500 testing and selling off the 2520 resistance level. My thoughts at the time being that this was a significant resistance and we would not breakout from it proved wrong as the market ripped through on Friday. Fueled by the hope that Powell … Continue reading Starting 2019
Equities will be volatile and the bear market is upon us: If indeed Sept was the top of this bull market and we are headed into a well needed reversion to the mean; expect 2019 to be a volatile and dangerous year for equities and risk assets across the board. Structural flaws will become apparent … Continue reading Some thoughts on 2019