The Business Cycle: Simplified Most everyone understands the business cycle; 7-10 year periods of economic expansion followed by recessionary contraction in GDP. A technical recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, characterized typically by tightening credit and a flight from risk assets. Recessions are those 'features' within economic law which allow for the repricing of … Continue reading The (short-term) Business Cycle
As the Dollar Currency Index approaches upper resistance in the $97.50 region, Gold looks attractive for a quick play. Everyone and their dog knows that Gold and the US Dollar (DXY) typically trade inversely, Dollar up > Gold down. Although this correlation has been breaking down in recent months; no doubt a weak Dollar provides … Continue reading Short term play on GOLD
Last December I read The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros. Published in 1987 I'm no doubt late to this one... to my credit, in 1987 I was -10 years old. I have come to find his theories on Reflexivity to be eye opening and a well needed addition to the proverbial tool belt of … Continue reading Reflexivity
The Dollar breaks out against Euro as ECB flips On Thursday the ECB flipped. After Powell lead the way in January it was about time for Mario to follow suit. After announcing a few dovish policy decisions and most notably that rates would remain unchanged until the end of 2019, the Euro sank to levels … Continue reading Dollar Euro Gold
On Friday the S&P500 closed within ~10 points of the previous week, marking little action as the index pressed up against the 2,800 resistance. Treasuries sold off slightly with the 10 Y hitting 2.759%. Treasury spread on the 5-30 hit its highest in more than a year at 58 basis points. Gold ended a bullish … Continue reading The Week Ahead
After the "worst December since the Great Depression" equities have recovered from their extremely oversold levels. The S&P500 posted a ~ 8% gain during the month of January. Since December 24 SPX has rallied almost 20% from 2350 back to 2800, with only 11 of the last 40 sessions closing lower than they opened. 2800-2817 … Continue reading Sell the News?
The January 30th FOMC press conference was greatly anticipated by market participants, generally looking to see how dovish Powell could get in the light of uncertain financial conditions and signs of a global slowdown. This is a recap of last meeting: Language: Powell starts off his conference indicating that the "economy is in a good … Continue reading The Powell Put in Action
Christmas eve posted a -2.06% day on the S&P500, when markets opened again on the 26th we closed up 4.43% (more than 100 S&P points). The DOW posted up 4.67% (+1,020 DOW points). Is this how we bottom? I don't think so. Since the Dec 26th intraday bottom of 2346 on the S&P, we … Continue reading The Ultimate Short Setup?
Last week we started off 2019 with a slide in equities, the S&P500 testing and selling off the 2520 resistance level. My thoughts at the time being that this was a significant resistance and we would not breakout from it proved wrong as the market ripped through on Friday. Fueled by the hope that Powell … Continue reading Starting 2019
Equities will be volatile and the bear market is upon us: If indeed Sept was the top of this bull market and we are headed into a well needed reversion to the mean; expect 2019 to be a volatile and dangerous year for equities and risk assets across the board. Structural flaws will become apparent … Continue reading Some thoughts on 2019