On Uncertainty

Playing Games with Uncertain Outcomes I think that one of the most unique struggles we face psychologically comes down to how we handle uncertainty, and how we operate in uncertain environments. To a degree, everything in life is uncertain. Tomorrows high temperature, your local grocery stores stock of toilet paper, or the next 10% move … Continue reading On Uncertainty

Market update: Dollar, Gold, 10Y, SPX and BTC

Dollar After breaking out through the Nov-April resistance of 97.70, the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) ticked to ~98.40 on two occasions and is currently selling down for a possible retest of prevailing support. Often we see resistance turned into support after a technical breakout, watching 97.50-97.70 to confirm the up-trend. As for the components of … Continue reading Market update: Dollar, Gold, 10Y, SPX and BTC

The (short-term) Business Cycle

The Business Cycle: Simplified Most everyone understands the business cycle; 7-10 year periods of economic expansion followed by recessionary contraction in GDP. A technical recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, characterized typically by tightening credit and a flight from risk assets. Recessions are those 'features' within economic law which allow for the repricing of … Continue reading The (short-term) Business Cycle

Don’t look now but Bitcoin is …rallying?

No doubt that cryptocurrencies throughout 2017 were a massive bubble of euphoria and unrealistic promises of unlimited application and disruption. In December of 2017 Bitcoin peaked just shy of $20,000 USD and throughout 2018 saw a decline of ~80%. Bitcoin fared well in comparison to most of its peers, with Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and … Continue reading Don’t look now but Bitcoin is …rallying?