Differentiating Risk Over the years I have come to really appreciate the Canadian wilderness, from canoeing camp trips up the French River to rocky Georgian Bay boat rips I've had many great adventures with many great friends. As you progress along the expensive and "geeky" journey that is tool/gadget accumulation you begin to fall in … Continue reading I Put An Axe In My Toe
Without a doubt the best opportunities present themselves during times of financial distress. During a bear market asset prices take to the downside as risk gets repriced and fear takes over. I would argue that the exact catalyst is not as particularly important as the archetype psychological response which it induces. Markets change, but the … Continue reading Putting on Risk in a Bear Market
Playing Games with Uncertain Outcomes I think that one of the most unique struggles we face psychologically comes down to how we handle uncertainty, and how we operate in uncertain environments. To a degree, everything in life is uncertain. Tomorrows high temperature, your local grocery stores stock of toilet paper, or the next 10% move … Continue reading On Uncertainty
What is money? Dollars, Euros, Pesos; they are all forms of value. Money in its most simple state is just a means of transferring value from one individual to another. For money to be money it needs to be: A unit of account A store of value A medium of exchange We like our money … Continue reading How I View Money
Dollar After breaking out through the Nov-April resistance of 97.70, the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) ticked to ~98.40 on two occasions and is currently selling down for a possible retest of prevailing support. Often we see resistance turned into support after a technical breakout, watching 97.50-97.70 to confirm the up-trend. As for the components of … Continue reading Market update: Dollar, Gold, 10Y, SPX and BTC
Regardless of your fundamental view on Bitcoin, you should still be asking yourself "Can it happen again?". I first started learning about cryptocurrencies and blockchain back in the spring of 2017. I cant quite remember where I first found out about Bitcoin but at that time there was little hype and the price was just … Continue reading Can It Happen Again?
No doubt that cryptocurrencies throughout 2017 were a massive bubble of euphoria and unrealistic promises of unlimited application and disruption. In December of 2017 Bitcoin peaked just shy of $20,000 USD and throughout 2018 saw a decline of ~80%. Bitcoin fared well in comparison to most of its peers, with Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and … Continue reading Don’t look now but Bitcoin is …rallying?
The Dollar breaks out against Euro as ECB flips On Thursday the ECB flipped. After Powell lead the way in January it was about time for Mario to follow suit. After announcing a few dovish policy decisions and most notably that rates would remain unchanged until the end of 2019, the Euro sank to levels … Continue reading Dollar Euro Gold
After 19%+ in two months, oversold conditions have run overbought. So far to be short in 2019 has been a less than fruitful venture, to say the least. Since Christmas day the S&P500 took off and never looked back. Breaking through 2,500 2,600 2,700, and while closing above 2,800 a couple times in the past … Continue reading The Short Side
On Friday the S&P500 closed within ~10 points of the previous week, marking little action as the index pressed up against the 2,800 resistance. Treasuries sold off slightly with the 10 Y hitting 2.759%. Treasury spread on the 5-30 hit its highest in more than a year at 58 basis points. Gold ended a bullish … Continue reading The Week Ahead