Differentiating Risk Over the years I have come to really appreciate the Canadian wilderness, from canoeing camp trips up the French River to rocky Georgian Bay boat rips I've had many great adventures with many great friends. As you progress along the expensive and "geeky" journey that is tool/gadget accumulation you begin to fall in … Continue reading I Put An Axe In My Toe
Without a doubt the best opportunities present themselves during times of financial distress. During a bear market asset prices take to the downside as risk gets repriced and fear takes over. I would argue that the exact catalyst is not as particularly important as the archetype psychological response which it induces. Markets change, but the … Continue reading Putting on Risk in a Bear Market
Playing Games with Uncertain Outcomes I think that one of the most unique struggles we face psychologically comes down to how we handle uncertainty, and how we operate in uncertain environments. To a degree, everything in life is uncertain. Tomorrows high temperature, your local grocery stores stock of toilet paper, or the next 10% move … Continue reading On Uncertainty
Human nature is to confirm. Most people look to find evidence (and arguments) that confirm their view/position. The confirmation bias is so prevalent in our fundamental psychology that its quite crippling when it comes to aligning your perspective to reality. This confirmation bias is embedded in our human nature and our thinking, countless studies show … Continue reading Look to falsify
Regardless of your fundamental view on Bitcoin, you should still be asking yourself "Can it happen again?". I first started learning about cryptocurrencies and blockchain back in the spring of 2017. I cant quite remember where I first found out about Bitcoin but at that time there was little hype and the price was just … Continue reading Can It Happen Again?
As the S&P and NASDAQ makes new highs, there seems to be less exuberance in the more risk-on small caps. As seen below, the Russell 2000 Index has been mostly trading sideways for 2 months now. There is a significant divergence that has taken place between the large-caps and small-caps, as indicated in the following: … Continue reading Convergence play?
I am 100% Bullish Gold in the long-term but today is not the day to buy. I have maintained the view that the US Dollar strength is not over yet. If we were going to see the Dollar top out it would have been when the Fed flipped Dovish. My view is that its a … Continue reading Gold Breaking Down
Last December I read The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros. Published in 1987 I'm no doubt late to this one... to my credit, in 1987 I was -10 years old. I have come to find his theories on Reflexivity to be eye opening and a well needed addition to the proverbial tool belt of … Continue reading Reflexivity
A quick summary of the opioid crisis in the United States: All data collected from The Economist; Issue Feb 23rd 2019. ~50,000 Americans dying each year from opioid overdoses Highest opioid death rate states: (2017) West Virginia Ohio New Hampshire Drugs now kill ~70,000 Americans/year. More than motor accident or gun deaths, which are ~39,000 … Continue reading The Real National Emergency: Opioid’s
Last week we started off 2019 with a slide in equities, the S&P500 testing and selling off the 2520 resistance level. My thoughts at the time being that this was a significant resistance and we would not breakout from it proved wrong as the market ripped through on Friday. Fueled by the hope that Powell … Continue reading Starting 2019