Dollar After breaking out through the Nov-April resistance of 97.70, the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) ticked to ~98.40 on two occasions and is currently selling down for a possible retest of prevailing support. Often we see resistance turned into support after a technical breakout, watching 97.50-97.70 to confirm the up-trend. As for the components of … Continue reading Market update: Dollar, Gold, 10Y, SPX and BTC
Charts
Convergence play?
As the S&P and NASDAQ makes new highs, there seems to be less exuberance in the more risk-on small caps. As seen below, the Russell 2000 Index has been mostly trading sideways for 2 months now. There is a significant divergence that has taken place between the large-caps and small-caps, as indicated in the following: … Continue reading Convergence play?
Gold Declining Wedge
Watching $1312 to see if Gold is going to break through the declining wedge pattern below. Interestingly the DXY still looks as if its going to continue selling off through to $96. Buy into strength. Sell into weakness.
Don’t look now but Bitcoin is …rallying?
No doubt that cryptocurrencies throughout 2017 were a massive bubble of euphoria and unrealistic promises of unlimited application and disruption. In December of 2017 Bitcoin peaked just shy of $20,000 USD and throughout 2018 saw a decline of ~80%. Bitcoin fared well in comparison to most of its peers, with Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and … Continue reading Don’t look now but Bitcoin is …rallying?
Short term play on GOLD
As the Dollar Currency Index approaches upper resistance in the $97.50 region, Gold looks attractive for a quick play. Everyone and their dog knows that Gold and the US Dollar (DXY) typically trade inversely, Dollar up > Gold down. Although this correlation has been breaking down in recent months; no doubt a weak Dollar provides … Continue reading Short term play on GOLD
The Short Side
After 19%+ in two months, oversold conditions have run overbought. So far to be short in 2019 has been a less than fruitful venture, to say the least. Since Christmas day the S&P500 took off and never looked back. Breaking through 2,500 2,600 2,700, and while closing above 2,800 a couple times in the past … Continue reading The Short Side
SPX top, Treasuries and Dollar Rally subdue GOLD
SPX Topping; a new lower high This week has been less exciting for equities as the major indices have failed to rally above last Fridays highs. As we look at the S&P 500 its easy to see that overhead resistance is becoming a large contributor to the days price action. Lets remember that in high … Continue reading SPX top, Treasuries and Dollar Rally subdue GOLD
$EEM has under-performed $SPX
The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has surprisingly under-performed the S&P 500 in this recent risk rally. Take a look at $SPX: nearly 14% since Dec 24th! Meanwhile $EEM has returned ~9% during the same time period Probably telling about the true nature of this surge in risk assets. Participants are highly emotional and uncertain during … Continue reading $EEM has under-performed $SPX
GOLD vs Dollar
Dollar Bounce: $95 technical support Lets recall the 4 major components of the Dollar Currency Index $DXY, by weight: Euro (EUR) - 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) - 13.6% Pound Sterling (GBP) - 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) - 9.1% Now we can see that the DXY bounce is primarily as result of Euro depreciation, relative to … Continue reading GOLD vs Dollar
$TWTR
$TWTR bounced again off $26-27 reaffirming support. Looking at resistance in $34-36 range.
Macro Speculator 