SPX Topping; a new lower high This week has been less exciting for equities as the major indices have failed to rally above last Fridays highs. As we look at the S&P 500 its easy to see that overhead resistance is becoming a large contributor to the days price action. Lets remember that in high … Continue reading SPX top, Treasuries and Dollar Rally subdue GOLD
The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has surprisingly under-performed the S&P 500 in this recent risk rally. Take a look at $SPX: nearly 14% since Dec 24th! Meanwhile $EEM has returned ~9% during the same time period Probably telling about the true nature of this surge in risk assets. Participants are highly emotional and uncertain during … Continue reading $EEM has under-performed $SPX
Dollar Bounce: $95 technical support Lets recall the 4 major components of the Dollar Currency Index $DXY, by weight: Euro (EUR) - 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) - 13.6% Pound Sterling (GBP) - 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) - 9.1% Now we can see that the DXY bounce is primarily as result of Euro depreciation, relative to … Continue reading GOLD vs Dollar
Christmas eve posted a -2.06% day on the S&P500, when markets opened again on the 26th we closed up 4.43% (more than 100 S&P points). The DOW posted up 4.67% (+1,020 DOW points). Is this how we bottom? I don't think so. Since the Dec 26th intraday bottom of 2346 on the S&P, we … Continue reading The Ultimate Short Setup?
$TWTR bounced again off $26-27 reaffirming support. Looking at resistance in $34-36 range.
Last week we started off 2019 with a slide in equities, the S&P500 testing and selling off the 2520 resistance level. My thoughts at the time being that this was a significant resistance and we would not breakout from it proved wrong as the market ripped through on Friday. Fueled by the hope that Powell … Continue reading Starting 2019
Equities will be volatile and the bear market is upon us: If indeed Sept was the top of this bull market and we are headed into a well needed reversion to the mean; expect 2019 to be a volatile and dangerous year for equities and risk assets across the board. Structural flaws will become apparent … Continue reading Some thoughts on 2019
Since December start: $SPX is off 12.46% $DJIA is off 12.10% $NASDAQ is off 13.60% Previous support in the 2600-2650 level on $SPX failed. Sentiment is changing. While the saying that Markets have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions is a truism, as sentiment changes, recessions become more likely to emerge. Not to mention … Continue reading December