Regardless of your fundamental view on Bitcoin, you should still be asking yourself “Can it happen again?”.
I first started learning about cryptocurrencies and blockchain back in the spring of 2017. I cant quite remember where I first found out about Bitcoin but at that time there was little hype and the price was just breaking $1,000 USD.
When I first heard about Ethereum the price was around ~$12. I remember checking the price a few months later and seeing it had gone to +$100. You bet I was kicking myself.
I bought my first Bitcoin around $2,700 in July, I didn’t buy much (I didn’t have much). I remember watching as the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and all other crypto’s rocketed into December. Witnessing my first real euphoria filled bubble.
I had versed myself in the lingo and had spend significant time understanding the technology. I still love the concept of blockchain and the concept of Bitcoin. Real world is different.
I wont go into detail about my view on Bitcoin because its pointless, the price action in the near term is not going to be fundamentally driven, it will be driven by simple supply and demand. The supply is currently 17.7M Bitcoins scarce and the demand is unknown.
There are always going to be outlying opinions, the McAfee’s and Dimon’s of the world. Some say it goes to $1M and some say its a fraud. At-least Jamie doesn’t have to eat his own **** if hes wrong… (here). The outcome will be determined by the masses.
I keep asking if it can happen again; if we can see the same (or greater) run up of price that we saw in 2017. YTD Bitcoin is up over 100%. It bottomed last Dec at ~$3,200 and is now trading at $8,000.
Are there more or less people who want to own Bitcoin now than compared to 2017? Is there more or less demand from institutions? Is retail any smarter? Is there a place for this type of scarce “digital gold”?
I don’t know the answers, but when I ask myself these questions I come to believe that Bitcoin up at $20,000+ isn’t unlikely.
Bitcoin is all about belief. Belief in value, scarcity, utility and most importantly; belief there will be a buyer above you.
If you think Bitcoin back up to 20k is ridiculous and impossible, take a look at the gaining adoption of MMT… I bet you also think that’s ridiculous.
Interesting side-note: the search interest is nowhere close to the 2017 hype levels.
Thanks for reading.