The Week Ahead

On Friday the S&P500 closed within ~10 points of the previous week, marking little action as the index pressed up against the 2,800 resistance.

SPX at 2800

Treasuries sold off slightly with the 10 Y hitting 2.759%. Treasury spread on the 5-30 hit its highest in more than a year at 58 basis points.

Gold ended a bullish run up with the spot price selling off from $1,346 on Feb 19 down to Fridays close of $1,293. The Miners also sold off. This Gold weakness as the Dollar has not made any drastic change in behavior.

GOLD selloff

Macro Ahead:

  • 10:00 – Mon – US Construction Spending MoM (Dec)
  • 5:00 – Tue – EA Retail Sales MoM (Jan)
  • 10:00 – Tue – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 – Tue – US New Home Sales (Dec)
  • 8:30 – Wed – CA Balance of Trade (Dec)
  • 8:30 – Wed – US Balance of Trade (Dec)
  • 10:00 – Wed – CA Interest Rate Decision (expected to hold @ 1.75%)
  • 19:30 – Wed – AU Balance of Trade (Jan)
  • 5:00 – Thu – EA 3rd Estimate for 4Q GDP Growth Rate
  • 7:45 – Thu – ECB Interest Rate Decision (expected to hold ~0%)
  • 8:30: – Thu – ECB Press Conference
  • 18:50 – Thu – JP Current Account (Jan)
  • 18:50 – Thu – JP Final 4Q18 GDP Growth Rate
  • 22:00 – Thu – CN Balance of Trade (Feb)
  • 8:30 – Fri – CA Unemployment Rate (Feb)
  • 8:30 – Fri – US Non Farm Payrolls (Feb)
  • 8:30 – Fri – US Unemployment Rate (Feb)
  • 20:30 – Fri – CN Inflation Rate (Feb)
  • 22:00 – Fri – Fed Chair Powell Speech

Paying close attention to the ISM PMI, US New Home Sales, the ECB Press Conference on Thursday, US Non Farm Payrolls, and China’s Balance of Trade for February.

I will also be watching to to see if Gold can recover from what seemed like a bloody last couple sessions, some consolidation sideways would be appreciated and called for.

While the S&P500 did indeed close above 2,800 on Friday the real test will be if it can break and close above 2,816, the long standing resistance from back in Oct and Nov. A pull-back from these levels would not be surprising after we have seen 20%+ in gains since Christmas.

 

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