Dollar After breaking out through the Nov-April resistance of 97.70, the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) ticked to ~98.40 on two occasions and is currently selling down for a possible retest of prevailing support. Often we see resistance turned into support after a technical breakout, watching 97.50-97.70 to confirm the up-trend. As for the components of … Continue reading Market update: Dollar, Gold, 10Y, SPX and BTC
Regardless of your fundamental view on Bitcoin, you should still be asking yourself "Can it happen again?". I first started learning about cryptocurrencies and blockchain back in the spring of 2017. I cant quite remember where I first found out about Bitcoin but at that time there was little hype and the price was just … Continue reading Can It Happen Again?
As the S&P and NASDAQ makes new highs, there seems to be less exuberance in the more risk-on small caps. As seen below, the Russell 2000 Index has been mostly trading sideways for 2 months now. There is a significant divergence that has taken place between the large-caps and small-caps, as indicated in the following: … Continue reading Convergence play?
I am 100% Bullish Gold in the long-term but today is not the day to buy. I have maintained the view that the US Dollar strength is not over yet. If we were going to see the Dollar top out it would have been when the Fed flipped Dovish. My view is that its a … Continue reading Gold Breaking Down
The Business Cycle: Simplified Most everyone understands the business cycle; 7-10 year periods of economic expansion followed by recessionary contraction in GDP. A technical recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, characterized typically by tightening credit and a flight from risk assets. Recessions are those 'features' within economic law which allow for the repricing of … Continue reading The (short-term) Business Cycle
Watching $1312 to see if Gold is going to break through the declining wedge pattern below. Interestingly the DXY still looks as if its going to continue selling off through to $96. Buy into strength. Sell into weakness.
No doubt that cryptocurrencies throughout 2017 were a massive bubble of euphoria and unrealistic promises of unlimited application and disruption. In December of 2017 Bitcoin peaked just shy of $20,000 USD and throughout 2018 saw a decline of ~80%. Bitcoin fared well in comparison to most of its peers, with Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and … Continue reading Don’t look now but Bitcoin is …rallying?
As the Dollar Currency Index approaches upper resistance in the $97.50 region, Gold looks attractive for a quick play. Everyone and their dog knows that Gold and the US Dollar (DXY) typically trade inversely, Dollar up > Gold down. Although this correlation has been breaking down in recent months; no doubt a weak Dollar provides … Continue reading Short term play on GOLD
Last December I read The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros. Published in 1987 I'm no doubt late to this one... to my credit, in 1987 I was -10 years old. I have come to find his theories on Reflexivity to be eye opening and a well needed addition to the proverbial tool belt of … Continue reading Reflexivity
The Dollar breaks out against Euro as ECB flips On Thursday the ECB flipped. After Powell lead the way in January it was about time for Mario to follow suit. After announcing a few dovish policy decisions and most notably that rates would remain unchanged until the end of 2019, the Euro sank to levels … Continue reading Dollar Euro Gold