On Uncertainty

Playing Games with Uncertain Outcomes I think that one of the most unique struggles we face psychologically comes down to how we handle uncertainty, and how we operate in uncertain environments. To a degree, everything in life is uncertain. Tomorrows high temperature, your local grocery stores stock of toilet paper, or the next 10% move … Continue reading On Uncertainty

Look to falsify

Human nature is to confirm. Most people look to find evidence (and arguments) that confirm their view/position. The confirmation bias is so prevalent in our fundamental psychology that its quite crippling when it comes to aligning your perspective to reality. This confirmation bias is embedded in our human nature and our thinking, countless studies show … Continue reading Look to falsify

Market update: Dollar, Gold, 10Y, SPX and BTC

Dollar After breaking out through the Nov-April resistance of 97.70, the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) ticked to ~98.40 on two occasions and is currently selling down for a possible retest of prevailing support. Often we see resistance turned into support after a technical breakout, watching 97.50-97.70 to confirm the up-trend. As for the components of … Continue reading Market update: Dollar, Gold, 10Y, SPX and BTC

The (short-term) Business Cycle

The Business Cycle: Simplified Most everyone understands the business cycle; 7-10 year periods of economic expansion followed by recessionary contraction in GDP. A technical recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, characterized typically by tightening credit and a flight from risk assets. Recessions are those 'features' within economic law which allow for the repricing of … Continue reading The (short-term) Business Cycle